Should Tehran trust Moscow

Since the collapse of USSR as result of its failed colonization of Afghanistan – its political and religious leaders have been striving hard to join the ‘Islamophobe’ Europe, which is mostly controlled by the pro-Israel Jewish elites. Europe, on the other hand, had sought American protection since 1950s at a great price though. Europe has been dragged by the US into the disgusting wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan and can look forward to the Islamic Republic. It was the US which provoked Russia-Georgia war on behalf of Israel – to teach Moscow a lesson for its close trade relation with Tehran.

Iranian leaders have to realize that Russia and Europe need each other as much for material benefits as for the reason that they are neighbours on the same continent. Since all major European powers (France, Germany and Italy) are pro-Israel, therefore, Russia cannot be trusted as a dependable ally.

Russia has been dragging the completion of Isran’s firat nuclear power-generating plant at Bushehr for the last 15 years under different excuses. Last month while in Turkey, Russian Prime Minister Putin told reporters in Istanbul that the plant will be commissioned in August 2010. Moscow has also been foot-dragging on its delivery of S-300 surface-to-air missile system worth US$800 million. Tehran ordered the system to counter US-Israel air strikes on its military facilities and has already paid more than half of its price. Both the Us and Israel have been urging Russia to cancel the contract. The agreed penality for non-delivery is US$400 million, which Washington would be more than glad to pay. A Kremlin source said on June 11 the sale of S-300 air defense systems fall under the new UN Security Council’s sanctions against Tehran, but the Russian foreign minister said it was up to the president to make the final decision.

Furthermore, Russia’s support for the fourth round of UNSC sanctions against Tehran on behalf of the Zionist regime – has made it imperative that in order to make sure that Russian fulfil their contractual obligations – Islamic Republic must establish some ‘bargaining chips’. These could include advancing Iran’s legitimate interests in the Caucasus and Central Asia – the two region which have already become Russia’s ‘soft belly’. Tajikistan and Azerbaijan would be the most suitable places to start with. Georgia has already moving away from Israel towards Iran.

Turkey and Brazil votes against the new round of UNSC sanctions against the Islamic Republic – is one of the greatest diplomatic achievments and an unexpected slap on the face of P5+1.

Maksud Djavadov in an article, titled Islamic Iran\’s options in dealing with Russia, wrote:

Russia’s support for the latest round of US-engineered sanctions, passed on June 9 against Islamic Iran at the UN Security Council,  can be seen as a blessing in disguise for Tehran. Russia’s subordination to the strategic goals of the US, which is to eliminate the Islamic government in Iran at any cost, has clarified Iran-Russia relations. It has also cleared the simplistic perspective that Iran and Russia were somehow strategic allies. Until now Russia and Iran could not clearly define their relationship, but Russian support for the latest round of anti-Iran sanctions and President Ahmedinejad’s warning to Russia clearly shows that Iran and Russia do not share a common vision of the world.

Some Iranian politicians mistakenly viewed Russia through the prism of the former USSR and assumed that Russia was an independent player in the international arena. In order to foster a long-term alliance with Moscow and to demonstrate good will, Iran refused to compete with Russia in many areas. Tehran assumed that after the collapse of the USSR, Russia would reinvent itself as a new and independent power. Moscow however, did not aim to become an independent player because it has no system to sustain itself from being subservient to the US-designed global order. Russian society and its political elites realized the system based on communism that they wanted to propose as an alternative global structure was a sham. Collapse of the USSR created a deep-seated identity crisis in Russia and an inferiority complex, from which Russia will not recover in its current borders.

After decades of trying to understand Russia’s position, Islamic Iran has finally realized that it cannot wait for Russia to rediscover itself so Iran made a strategic move. Islamic Iran along with emerging Muslim power Turkey and quasi-revolutionary Brazil created a strategic precedence, showing to the world that when things are done free from Western interference, better results are achieved. A nuclear deal reached between Iran, Turkey and Brazil on May 17 underlined Iran’s foreign policy to be oriented primarily toward giving voice to the oppressed. By agreeing to a Brazilian-Turkish nuclear deal, Iran facilitated a new environment that set a precedence for the formation of new centers of power.

One of the key differences between a nuclear deal reached in May 2010 and the one offered to Iran in October 2009 is that the third party involved is not Russia, but Turkey. The Iranian agreement to the Brazilian offer showed that Iran is not going to play the game dictated by global hegemons, no matter where they are located: east, west or north. The agreement showed that Iran would not become Russia’s bargaining chip.

Russia realizes that by losing Iran as its associate, it will lose an important bargaining leverage against the West. Therefore, it will attempt to calm Iran down through minor compromises. However, Islamic Iran must not allow itself to be dragged back into a tactical deal with Russia; instead Tehran must force Russia into an alliance with itself. Islamic Iran must actively lobby Turkey and the EU countries to facilitate an opportunity to free Europe from its dependency on Russian gas and other energy products. Iran and Turkey must cooperate in lobbying each EU member state separately and propose several methods of delivering gas to the EU, bypassing Russia. This offer will also create a gap between some EU countries, which are desperate for alternative sources of gas, and the US.
Whatever leverages Iran decides to use against Russia, it must do so with speed and accuracy. These leverages must make Russian subordination to US polices costly for Moscow. However, at present Iran must keep in mind that the main purpose of its pressure against Russia is to deter it from blindly following the US line. This would be sufficient for now and would make Moscow realize that its anti-Iran policies are not cost-free.

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